Yesterday, SCOTUS heard oral arguments in the case Watson v. Republican National Committee. This is the case regarding the viability of mail-in ballots and whether or not they should be counted if received after election day (even if they are postmarked before election day).

While IANAL, some of the arguments made by the RNC to SCOTUS were, well, quite unbelievable. I’ll let Marc Elias from the Elias Law firm (a true American hero and one of the main bulwarks against Republican authoritarianism) fill you in (may be paywalled):

After rereading the transcript, I turned to the media’s coverage of the day. Some thought we would win, others predicted a loss. All, however, treated the RNC’s position as normal and legally reasonable.

…

For example, in their complaint in Watson, the RNC cited data showing that Democratic voters disproportionately utilize vote by mail and mail their ballots late. Then they went a step further. In a federal court filing, the RNC had the audacity to write that counting these ballots "specifically and disproportionately harms Republican candidates and voters.".

…

Our country has spent decades treating politics as a game between two teams, each with legitimate grievances. That framework may have made sense when both parties operated within the democratic rules of the road. But that hasn't been true for more than a decade — and it is getting worse. 

Trump has now made the SAVE America Act his top legislative priority, threatening to refuse to sign any legislation until it passes. His explanation for why Republicans need it was, as usual, unambiguous. "We'll never lose a race. For 50 years, we won't lose a race."

Rather than examining why the GOP is investing such enormous political capital in a bill that strips voting rights from millions of Americans, the media focuses on whether it might backfire politically.

I am writing this because I want to warn you and because I want there to be a record.

The Republican Party is telling us, with brimming confidence and zero shame, that it intends to make it harder for its opponents to vote and easier to control the outcome of elections. They are prepared to use every tool available to them — legal or not — to stay in power.

There are no two sides to a confession. There is only the confession — and the choice of whether to take it seriously.


I was stunned when reading this. Have we really gotten to the point where Republicans feel free in front of a friendly partisan-hack SCOTUS to make blatant political (and IMHO, non-legal) arguments that SCOTUS should rule in their favor because the RNC doesn’t want to count the votes of people who vote against them? Is the political fact that Democrats tend to utilize mail-in voting more often than Republicans now being treated as a legal matter?

Those are rhetorical questions. The simple answer from me and, better yet, from a legal giant like Marc Elies is, amazingly… YES.

The RNC is also arguing that extending ballot receipt past Election Day contravenes Congress’s mandate of a uniform national election day and erodes confidence in results.

Again, IANAL, but election day is still election day even if mail-in ballots are used. And the main thing that erodes confidence is Republicans’ specious argument that somehow a vote cast by mail is “less valid” than a vote cast in person. Again, is “eroding confidence” really a “legal” argument? Again, rhetorical question.

I though the American ideal was to incentivize everyone to take advantage of one of their most important constitutional rights - the right to vote. The U.S. Postal Service is theoretically non-partisan. However, if the U.S. Postal Service is run by a naked partisan (as was the case with the previous Postmaster General, Louis DeJoy (a major Republican donor and fundraiser), a SCOTUS decision that mail-in ballots postmarked before election day are not valid if received after election day would leave our elections at the mercy of whichever political party is more incentivized to delay the mail.

Likewise, if “eroded confidence” in mail-in ballots becomes a material legal point, doesn’t that just incentivize whichever political party believes mail-in ballots are more harmful to their electoral chances to purposefully pursue a strategy of … eroding public confidence?

This is madness masquerading as legal matters.

I also want to address Marc’s point about the media. The legacy media has historically looked at voting cases/issues/complaints through their typical “horse race” lens of which party benefits vs. which party gets hurt, when the real issue is which party is actively working to suppress legal voters from voting (hint: Rs) vs. which party wants every legal voter to be able to vote (hint: Ds).

The media also acts as if the candidate who is temporarily ahead on election day before all mail-in ballots are counted is “winning”, while the reality is simply that some ballots are counted later than others. The fact is that no candidate is actually “winning” or “losing” until all the ballots are counted (don’t come at me - I get that there are some races where it is easy to know who will win even before all the ballots are counted). Example: in Wisconsin, ballots from the state’s largest city - Milwaukee - tend to get counted later in the evening simply due to higher volume than more rural areas of the state. If a statewide Republican has more votes before all of Milwaukee’s votes are tabulated, that doesn’t mean that Republican is “winning”; it just means not all the votes have been counted. Republicans, however, would have us believe this means there is some type of nefarious vote-fixing scheme taking place. Talk about falsely eroding confidence…

One final point. Historically, many elections in the U.S. were not often decided on election day because it took many days to count votes. In fact, until 1845, elections were generally held not on a single day, but over a period of many days. Congress only established a national Election Day in 1845 to streamline results and reduce the influence of early results on later voting decisions. Of course, this is not an issue if mail-in ballots are counted on election day and after.

Oh, BTW, there was special election yesterday for the state legislature in the Florida district where Mar-A-Lago is located (the Dem candidate won and flipped the seat). Trump voted in that election. Yep - he voted by mail.

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Kay W.8 months ago

Kind of a split decision in Denmark’s elections yesterday. The Social Democrats (center Left) underperformed, although they did manage to block the far Right. It’s a GOOD result for the Danish Left, however, because now the center Left will have to include them in an anti Right coalition. The center Left had hoped for an anti Trump boost but it didn’t appear.

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Joe is Wypoxic8 months ago

Surprising, no? Didn't Mette call the snap election because she expected to do better?

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Kay W.8 months ago

Yes! She’s an odd duck though. Not very “likeable”, as they say. She apologized several times in the run up to the ejection for being too blunt.

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Joe is Wypoxic8 months ago

Hahaha

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Sepideh M8 months ago

It's not lost on me that they are trying to FURTHER disenfranchise voters in Mississippi, and I am sure some of the late votes there are veterans.

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Scott H8 months ago

As if black voters in MS weren't disenfranchised enough.

Maybe they're thinking the rurl, white poor are allowable "collateral damage" in terms of the end goal of reinstating Jim Crow With 21st Century Characteristics.

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Kay W.8 months ago

I worked for the postal service and then as a poll worker and the two systems have a lot of commonality. Alito doesnt understand either system. Most of the Right’s insane theories about voting process would disappear if they’d get off their ass and do a poll worker shift. It’s a routine state recording process. They’d know this if they ever did any civic volunteering.

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C P8 months ago

Those are rhetorical questions. The simple answer from me and, better yet, from a legal giant like Marc Elies is, amazingly… YES.

Not to be all "it's always been like this," but I think we underestimate just how blatantly they've been proclaiming this for years.

Living in or around DC makes this very stark. It's simply understood, to the point that people don't even comment on it anymore, that "oh, you can't give DC statehood, otherwise it'd be an automatic blue vote" is a completely unremarkable argument. You may not agree with it, but very few people even point out how batshit insane it is to make an argument like "oh, you can't give people representation in the Senate if those people would vote Democrat!" is a very normal thing to say.

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TBone Dinosaur8 months ago

A great observation and illustration!

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C P8 months ago

Same with the ever-popular argument "but it's not fair for Democrats to win this state just by winning the city vote!" You never, ever, ever hear this in the other direction. Pigs will fly before any liberal, moderate, or conservative ever says "but look at this state with the small college town and the couple of Indian reservations! Is it fair to these people that the state always goes Republicans, simply because there are more white rural folk than there are these people?" Because that, manifestly, is batshit insane: you're literally saying "democracy is unfair because I can't convince enough people to vote for me." But again, that same argument is completely normal when heard in the opposite direction, to the point that even liberals fret about it constantly.

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C P8 months ago

And of course, when you talk to real Republicans, they'll tell you this all the time.

I often say that the very best thing that ever happened to my political education were those couple years I spent on the right-wing blogosphere as a teenager in the early 2000s. Yes, it's a kind of nauseating experience to slowly discover what utter sociopaths they are, and also to realize how easy it is for you to be played using a generic sentiment of "well fuck yeah we should fight back against those assholes who attacked us on 9/11, who's the UN to tell us otherwise?" to get you to, at least initially, buy into something really really ugly.

But it's educational as fuck, and it leaves you with very few illusions about who and what these people are.

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TBone Dinosaur8 months ago

I began political life steeped in the rethug political machine that was Delco (it only went Dem recently). At my first law office job, the senior partner proudly displayed an autographedportrait of Richard Nixon, very prominently framed on his office wall. The entire county was ugly with rethug politics at every level and institution, and the nepotism was also at ridiculous levels.

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Joe is Wypoxic8 months ago

C P - yep. Been saying that for years. Roughly 80% of Americans live in urban metro areas. But somehow, they shouldn't get the same one person one vote accorded to the real Americans - the rural ones. Of course, the real issue is the larger a metro areas grows, the "bluer" it becomes. Look at Boise in Idaho, Phoenix in Arizona and Salt Lake City in Utah. States like Wyoming are blood red because there are no metro areas large enough yet.

The "real Americans" trope is gross.

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mister mix8 months ago

Yes - however, the one rural area where votes don't count are the reservations. They have been targets of voter id / suppression efforts since the 80's. I became a notary public at age 18 so I could register people to vote and take absentee ballots -- they had to be notarized, because how else could we trust those people, said the Republicans in charge.

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Joe is Wypoxic8 months ago

The rez's are such a difficult place. I campaigned vigorously at the HUGE rez in my state. Extremely challenging. Lack of addresses, phones, transportation, information, and just general disengagement. Everywhere I went, even though I genuinely supported their causes, the distrust was palpable (and based on history, justified). I was told I was just another white guy in a 200-year history of white people screwing with them.

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Kay W.8 months ago

Alito is just such a bad thinker. The vote doesn’t materialize the day the envelope is opened - it exists from the moment the voter marks the ballot. The postmark is just proof of date. Nothing changes from sealing the envelope to opening it - the event has already occurred. Is he like this with every parcel he receives? He thinks the contents of the package were created when the package is opened, spontaneously? I don’t how these people perform ordinary tasks - driving, navigating a crosswalk, opening doors. They don’t seem to understand how the physical world works. It isn’t that difficult to understand mailing something.

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TBone Dinosaur8 months ago

Oh, they understand, they're just power drunk charlatans.

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Kay W.8 months ago

He believes it. He recites that ridiculous Right wing trope that votes “appear” after some undetermined point which is somehow “after” what he prefers. Nothing appears. It was already there.

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TBone Dinosaur8 months ago

Point taken!
I'm still and will always be rankled over

"Alito’s draft opinion sidesteps this well-established history. Instead, he insults 21st-century Americans by citing the words of a 13th-century judge who endorsed human slavery and a 17th-century jurist who sentenced witches to execution and defended marital rape."

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Joe is Wypoxic8 months ago

Exactly Kay. They push the "well, our candidate was ahead until the 'vote dump' late at night". Well, that's just when those votes were counted - they were actually cast in a timely manner.

Let's call Alito what he is - a partisan hack. He and others on the court (including Roberts) have substituted their personal views in the place of legal analysis (how can we forget Robert's deep constitutional analysis (SARCASM) in Shelby v. Holder that racism was no longer “pervasive,” “flagrant,” “widespread,” and “rampant”, even though Congress reauthorized the Voting Rights Act nearly unanimously: Senate 98-0, House 390-33 in 2006?)

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TBone Dinosaur8 months ago

Underestimating the mendacity and venality of our opponents is a major problem. They always stoop lower than a pregnant ant.

I had a mail in ballot issue (no Dem ballots received on time in my neighborhood) and my local Dem leader acted like I should calm down and smile more when I called.

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TBone Dinosaur8 months ago

And I wasn't even upset, I was measured and polite.

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TBone Dinosaur8 months ago

A 'we must not underestimate' skeet and reports:

“...a democratic recession”, which began two decades ago, is beginning to look dangerously like a democratic depression. The other is that, in 2025, Trump launched what turned out to be the swiftest decline in the health of any significant democracy in recent times."

https://bsky.app/profile/robertscotthorton.bsky.social/post/3mhufvxi6ik26

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TBone Dinosaur8 months ago

Obvs, I hope the smallish number of Dem wins so far this year does not result in overconfidence!

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TBone Dinosaur8 months ago

That said, I love this for Dotard (being pwned in his own backyard is perfect).