I’m writing this last night, and there’s still a lot of rumor and speculation about the details of the two-week ceasefire that Trump and Iran have apparently agreed upon. This is the clearest statement of the Iranian position that I’ve seen.

There’s a lot of discussion about the possibility of Iran extracting $2 million tolls for every ship passing through the Strait, but the undeniable fact is that the Strait was not under the control of Iran prior to Trump’s war. Now, it is. That’s a major loss for the US even if Iran doesn’t make a penny from the ships that transit the Strait. The uranium that was supposedly the main reason for the attack is still sitting somewhere in Iran. There’s still a mullah in charge in Iran. The Iranian armed forces are still launching missiles, apparently, though I’m guessing they’ll stop as soon as the news of the cease-fire filters through the compromised communications channels in their country. There were rumors that a cease-fire in Lebanon was part of the plan, but the last report I saw said the Israelis are still attacking there.

Trump’s toadies will try to sell this as a win that came about because of Trump’s threats, but even people who might be inclined to believe that still have to buy gas, which will remain high for a long time to come.

I’m writing as if this cease-fire will stick, and if I had to bet, I’d say it will. Part of the reason that I think it will stick is that it’s the only rational course of action, but many a mistake has been made by those expecting Trump to act rationally. So, we’ll see. My guess is that they’re already teeing up the next big stupid mistake to distract us all from this one.

Finally, it is a very legitimate campaign issue to point out that there’s no need to live on an emotional rollercoaster just because the President is trying to wriggle out of yet another fuckup.