I’ll jump to the conclusion up front (tl:dr for my own column):
Trump’s FollyTM, as the Iran War should become universally known, is quickly turning into a quagmire - and catastrophe - of unprecedented and historic proportions, due solely to the ignorance and whims of a mentally ill, pathologically lying, madman and his sycophantic minions.
Trump’s Folly should become the linchpin in attacking Trump, his cronies, and the Republican Party in general.
Trump’s Folly will supplant Seward’s Folly (buying Alaska from Russia - which didn’t turn ot so badly) in history’s telling of tragedies of this time.
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Simplistic and Stupid Assumption for War. First, here is Trump traying to rationalize his war:
As many have pointed out, his feeble mind believed that what worked against a tin pot dictatorship like Venezuela would work against an entrenched religious-fanatic theocratic regime with 3 times the population, nearly twice the land mass and a military budget roughly 32x the size of Venezuela. Ignorance combined with simplistic thinking is a bitch.
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Historic Unpopularity. Unlike previous Presidents working to “sell” previous wars, Trump and his team did absolutely nothing to prepare the American people for this war. Their rationale for war constantly changed, and they were negligent in planning for the economic fallout and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The result? The Trump’s Folly was historically unpopular at its outset and continues to be historically unpopular as the U.S. continues to thrash in deep water and figuratively sink into the Strait of Hormuz.
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Negative Consequences for the U.S. In his Substack column today, military historian and professor Phillips O’Brien makes the case that Trump’s Folly has weakened the U.S in a myriad of ways.
This quote from the O’Brien’s post sums it up quite succinctly:
The USA is engaged in a war of choice to defeat itself. It certainly is a special moment.
O’Brien’s Substack today (titled: Midweek Update #20: Each Day the U.S. Weakens Itself) is a must read. He touches on the following topics:
Lack of military options to “defeat” Iran. other than all-out war, which would require “using hundreds of thousands of troops, masses of munitions (it is not clear that the US even has enough left at this point) and has no end-date in mind.”
Depletion of military capability:
“First, the US is simply further depleting its stockpiles of vital weapons and doing so in efforts that can achieve nothing political. The reality behind this depletion seems to be causing panic in the Pentagon. Let me start with this quote from an anonymous official about what is happening, which was given to the Washington Post.
"We do not have enough to safely sustain operations, and I don't think the White House is aware of that."“
U.S. Actions are actually strengthening Iran:
“For the simple reason that the attacks Iran is doing in response to US operations are, I hate to say it, far strategically superior to what the US is doing to it. The Iranians realize that they cannot defeat the US military outright as an institution, but moreover that they do not need to do that. What they need to do is make the war so politically costly for the US that Iran emerges from the war in a stronger position.”
Negatively changing the status quo in the Middle East:
“These attacks by Iran are having multiple areas of strategic effect. They are not just running down US munitions (but they are doing that as well, note the attacks on Patriot batteries and other US bases), they are showing that they can strike US allies regardless of US protection, and they are also empowering their allies. Note the Houthis in Yemen just announced that they will start targeting tankers carrying Saudi oil.
This is causing some real worry amongst US partners. Only the UAE seems to have doubled down on US support. The rest are having serious doubts about US reliability, not just now but going forward. I have been chatting with a US businessperson and investor who does extensive work in the Gulf States and was there recently. They said:
“There are two long-term political consequences of the US-Iran War: The exacerbation of pre-existing political fissures in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and the dilution of US influence as it becomes clear that America’s security guarantee is weaker than once thought. The strategic fallout is stark. A divided GCC only strengthens Iran, and China is positioned to capitalize on the erosion of US credibility”.
And believe me, each day of Iran doing this sideways escalation that the US cannot stop, makes these problems more acute. The Trump administration, for example, is now making major concessions to Saudi Arabia on the question of nuclear power development, which could result in a Saudi nuclear weapon.”
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Corruption and Personal Enrichment: Never ones to pass up an opportunity to grift off others, the Trump family has taken advantage of Trump’s Folly to enrich themselves on the backs of the rest of us:
“Just over a week after U.S. and Israeli forces struck Iran in late February, a publicly traded Florida golf course company announced an unusual plan: a reverse merger to take a barely year-old drone startup public. Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump were part owners of the golf course company; now, they are backers of the drone startup. Seven weeks later, after a demonstration in Arizona, the Air Force placed a limited order for the startup’s interceptor drones.
It was not an isolated move.
Since their father won a second term, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump — President Donald Trump’s two eldest sons, neither of whom hold official roles in the administration — have become linked to investments in at least 10 companies with military applications. Those firms have collectively received about $3.7 billion in federal funds since the start of the second Trump administration, according to an MS NOW review of public records. Three hit record levels of Defense Department funding within the last year.”
‘Nuff said.
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Skyrocketing Cost of War Covered Up by the Trump Admin. Two articles from the Washington Post (free gift links) help tell the tale:
With some funds set to dry up within weeks, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth pressed lawmakers to address the increasingly urgent shortfall.
Some lawmakers appeared frustrated as they sought clarity on the Trump administration’s strategy for the conflict amid renewed hostilities and a $67 billion funding request.
However, the truth is much different from Hegseth’s lies under oath.
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Republicans Elected Officials Aren’t Doing (and don’t want to do) Their Jobs. While both parties have unfortunately ignored the Constitution and ceded Congressional war-making power and authority to the Executive Branch, today’s Republican s in Congress hav taken it to high art:
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It’s time for Democrats to follow the lead of - yes, again - Senator Ossoff of Georgia and do what’s right for the country while at the same time doing what’s right for Democrats.
An historically unpopular war that is weakening our country internally and externally. Started by a corrupt administration and supported by a feckless and weak Republican congressional majority. A war that is corruptly enriching Trump, his family and his crony “insiders” at the expense of the rest of us. A war that is increasing the price of gas and food. A war that is alienating our allies (the EU, Canada, etc.), empowering enemies (Russia) and enhancing the worldwide status of rivals (China). A war that is siphoning funds away from our ability to provide affordable healthcare, housing, childcare and other critical needs of the American people.
True - the America people normally pull together in times of war. However, it seems clear that the vast majority of the America people understand that this war did not have to happen, should not have happened, and they recognize the damage it is doing to The United States on many levels.
Policy is politics and politics is policy. It’s time for all those who oppose Trump’s Folly - especially Democratic politicians - to strongly and proudly make the case that the Republicans are putting power over people and recklessly harming our country out of cowardice and feckless compliance to a convicted felon and adjudicated rapist who also happens to be the worst President in our history
Final thought:
Democrats should echo (and use) the words of former WWII Supreme Commander and former President Dwight D. Eisenhower, who, in a speech delivered to the American Society of Newspaper Editors in Washington, D.C., on April 16, 1953, (referred to as the “Chance for Peace” speech or “Cross of Iron” speech) "Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed."
