I’m writing this on Tuesday night, and the series of events that went on before the House passed the Elon Musk Gets Another Tax Cut and Granny is in a Snowbank Act, a.k.a., the budget, are yet another indicator that the rules of politics are being bent beyond recognition.

At the onset of voting, it was clear that Pastor Mike didn’t have the votes. In fact, the House recessed and was going home for the night. Aaron Fritschner, who works for Rep Don Beyer (D-VA-8) posted these two skeets on BlueSky:

Hakeem Jeffries had worked his caucus to get everyone who he could there. Brittany Pettersen (D-CO-7), three weeks postpartum, flew in from Colorado and brought her baby to the floor. Kevin Mullin (D-CA-15), recovering from three surgeries, a blood clot, and an infection, also flew in and made it for the vote. The only Democrat who didn’t make the vote was Raul Grijalva (D-AZ-3) who is being treated for lung cancer. The final vote was 217-214, with the only Thomas Massie (R-KY-4) voting Nay. Massie has made it his life’s mission to vote against everything after his wife died.

Between the time that members were sent home and were called back, something happened that made three members who had committed to vote against to change their votes. They were Tim Burchett (R-TN-2), Warren Davidson (R-OH-8) and Victoria Spartz (R-IN-5). TPM has a more detail on how the vote went down.

This vote is reminiscent of the vote for Johnson for Speaker, where the vote was held open for an hour while arms were twisted off the floor. At that time, the story that went around was that members were taken into antechambers of the House floor and talked with Trump.

I stand by the post I wrote earlier today, saying that this vote is political suicide for any Republican in a tight district that receives a lot of Medicaid money. That said, how do you get people to vote against their political interests? You threaten them with something. What that thing is will probably come out soon. In the end, though, it doesn’t matter. This vote shows that our crisis is deepening. Conventional wisdom would make one think that Johnson would be short at least a handful of votes. And, at the start of this vote, he probably was. But the call went out, threats were made, and Reps got in line.

What this means to me is that the same thing will probably happen in the Senate: the skids are greased. This bill is going to kill people. It is political and policy poison. Maximum delay needs to be applied by Democrats in the Senate. More on that in future posts. Until then, call your Senators and tell them that this bill is terrible.

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Scott H1 year ago

We talked about this earlier in the week but Evan in CO-08, who just squeaked by in a district deliberately drawn to be competitive, is doing himself no favors. That assumes the state Dems draft or get a good candidate out of the primary and know how to campaign on this. Regarding that latter part, I'm not so sure.

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C P1 year ago

"That said, how do you get people to vote against their political interests? You threaten them with something. What that thing is will probably come out soon."

At the end of the day, what they're threatened with is being cut out. All their money, all their connections, all the perks of office, everything their life as become will suddenly be taken away if they turn apostate. This is how cults work, whether you're the stereotypical poor and socially maladjusted recruit, or a national politician. They cut you off from everything outside the cult, demand absolute submission to the cult, and threaten to cut you off and leave you with nothing if you ever break that rule.

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mister mixAuthor1 year ago

This is a good point - I guess I always think that "cult" is just a pejorative but it also has explanatory power.

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Betty Cracker1 year ago

It is political and policy poison. But they're going for it anyway, which makes me wonder if they think they've been convinced pesky voters won't matter anymore.

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mister mixAuthor1 year ago

Reading some more about it this morning, I think part of it is that they convinced themselves that the cuts wouldn't really happen. This was a budget resolution that set numbers, not specific cuts. So fantasy mathematicians, which is what these fuckers are, think somehow USDA is going to come up with $230 billion in cuts that it won't just annihilate SNAP. D-Day has a good piece on this: https://prospect.org/politics/2025-02-26-house-republicans-squeak-through-budget-resolution/

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John S.1 year ago

Yeah, I would prefer to believe that incompetence is more at play here than nefarious motive. Unfortunately, Republicans are just so damn good at both.

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Kay W.1 year ago

We talk a lot about providers and what they get paid and its true they garnish people and harass them to get paid but the other thing is they have to GET PAID or they close. So garnishment will go up and medical bankruptcies will go up and people will be denied care but "getting paid" is not actually optional in our system so providers will close, so this affects even rural white people who HAVE private health insurance. Don't ignore that group. Tell them their hospital will close. Talk to Medicaid recipienrs, sure, but also talk to the people in rural areas who have private health insurance and tell them they lose local access. Its true.

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mister mixAuthor1 year ago

You're right. The nursing home in my home town closed when SD didn't take the Medicaid expansion (plus corporate mismanagement) and so did the one in a nearby town. Latter one was saved by the town, former one is now an empty lot. But do the people there make the connection between their old folks being taken to homes hundreds of miles away? No -- because they're so Fox-pilled, and local media is so dead that they the connection will never be made for them.

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Kay W.1 year ago

One of the best things that happened after the ACA passed was we actually got competition among providers. We had always had a medical group but we got two walk in clinics with evening hours due to the Medicaid expansion in Ohio. AND (probably more important) we got a dentist who takes Medicaid. Just huge for working people. All of that will close.

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Kay W.1 year ago

The repercussions will be systemic, in that every white rural working class area has under resourced rural hospitals and other providers who won't get paid without Medicaid. I live and work in one if these counties - 75% Trump. Something like 40% of our total health care payers are Medicaid. What that means for rural people is 60+ mile commutes to get something like chemo or an ER or dialysis.