The Numbers are Going to Come Out

[…] As I was writing this morning, I saw that Trump says he’ll nominate a new person in the next three or four days. That choice will tell us a lot about where we’re going. Whatever actually happens with the numbers, there’s no question to me that trust in government economic data has already taken a huge blow. How can it not? One bad jobs data release and the Senate-confirmed career government economist in charge of the agency was fired. How can that fact not be top of mind for whoever Trump appoints to replace her? That’s assuming the new person is someone who defaults to trying produce accurate data as opposed to some NewsMax host who is committed to only producing “America First” numbers. Any legit commissioner knows their job is safe only as long as the numbers are good for Trump.

That bell can’t be unrung. But the state of BLS’s credibility is different from the mechanics of what’s actually happening inside the agency. It’s not impossible that this will be like Trump’s firing of James Comey in 2017 — an arbitrary and impulsive decision but one in which Comey was replaced by a more or less normal career government prosecutor. Perhaps Trump will nominate a more or less normal person to succeed McEntarfer. Maybe? I’m not holding my breath. That brings us to another basic question: would a normal person take the job under these circumstances? And how normal could they be if they do?

As summer travel peaks in the Flathead Valley, businesses are reporting flat domestic tourism compared to 2024 with an uptick in last-minute trips and a 25% decline in Canadian travel amid a weak currency, economic uncertainty and tense border relations.

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Canadian credit card spending was down 44% in April, a slight improvement from the 56% drop in March, according to Discover Kalispell Executive Director Diane Medler. In June, there was a 22% year-over-year drop in crossings from Canada at the Roosville border crossing near Eureka with a 25% drop in May.

The RV Industry Association (RVIA) dropped some grim stats: in May 2025, RV shipments tanked to 28,150 units. That’s a 15.1% drop from the 33,150 units shipped in May 2024. I was shocked because earlier this year, things seemed to be picking up—first-quarter 2025 shipments were up 15.8% compared to last year, mostly thanks to towable RVs like travel trailers and fifth wheels. But that May slump? It’s like the industry thought demand was still booming and got caught with way too many RVs sitting on lots.