The "Middle Countries" React

Kay mentioned that Canadian PM Mark Carney gave a hell of a speech in the comments yesterday, and I wanted to drill in on that. Here’s the text and video on the CBC.

Carney’s key points:

• There has been a “rupture in the world order.” A “nice story” — the rules-based international order — has given way to a brutal reality “where geopolitics among the great powers is not subject to any constraints.”

• The multilateral institutions which middle countries relied on (like the UN and WTO) are under threat, so middle countries ”must develop greater strategic autonomy: in energy, food, critical minerals, in finance and supply chains.”

• Canada’s new approach is “values-based realism”: “Principled in our commitment to fundamental values: sovereignty and territorial integrity, the prohibition of the use of force except when consistent with the UN Charter and respect for human rights.”

• “A country that cannot feed itself, fuel itself or defend itself has few options. When the rules no longer protect you, you must protect yourself.”

• Canada is responding by doubling defense spending, cutting taxes on income, capital gains and investment, and “fast-tracking a trillion dollars of investment in energy, AI, critical minerals, new trade corridors and beyond.”

• Canada has signed 12 trade deals in the last 6 months, including recent ones with China and Qatar. They’re also negotiating free trade agreements around the world.

• Canada is part of the coalition of the willing in Ukraine and they stand with Greenland and Denmark on security in the Arctic.

He ended his speech with an exhortation that middle powers must act together.

Stephen Miller’s statement the other day:

Carney’s speech was not a direct response to Miller, but it could have been when Carney stated “Middle powers must act together because if we're not at the table, we're on the menu.”

Canada was fortunate in having a well-timed election in 2025. When Canadians realized that they were under attack from Trump, they reacted by electing the Canadian most able to execute a trade war. Carney is a very smart, disciplined, experienced international banker. He’s the right guy at the right time. (Justin Trudeau, for all of his good qualities, came to Davos with his new girlfriend Katy Perry. Enough said.)

Turning to Mexico, the other middle country that borders the US, President Claudia Sheinbaum is in a different spot than Carney. Her country is larger (132 million vs 40 million), and Mexico is the biggest trading partner with the US (and vice-versa). Mexico can feed itself and fuel itself. When it comes down to a real invasion, I’d argue that Mexico can also defend itself. (Canada can, too, and this piece by Charlie Angus explains why.)

That said, unlike Canada, Mexico is in the middle of a historical transformation, and Trump’s threats are a true “distraction” from Claudia’s mission. Her fights are internal: corruption, lack of healthcare, lack of schooling and cartels. There’s a reason why she isn’t at Davos, and why her predecessor, AMLO, never left the country. Still, here’s her latest Instagram post:

(If you don’t know who the Governor General is, she’s the King’s representative in Canada.)

On Monday, her daily press conference was derailed by questions about a US military cargo plane landing at a Mexican airport — it was picking up Mexican military personnel for training, but Mexico is on a hair trigger after the invasion of Venezuela, and rightly so. Claudia would so much rather be doing this:

Claudia is wiser than Carney (she’s as smart or smarter, but she has a lot more humility than he does). She goes far out of her way not to antagonize Trump. But my guess is that she mostly agrees with Carney: the rules-based international order, which was a pleasant fiction, is over.

When you destroy something that took decades to build, it isn’t coming back soon, if ever. We need to adjust to this new reality. Also, Democrats can learn from Carney and Claudia’s attitudes towards the US and pick and choose from the strategies that either of these intelligent and capable politicians are using. But it all starts with accepting that we’re never going back, something that the current Democratic leadership seems unable to grasp.

Canadians get it: