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The Kids are Alright
New polling shows that Democrats still have the "youth vote"
mister mix
April 27, 2025
My favorite Steve M, who shares the same negative view of humanity as me, read the latest Times poll:
We're regularly told that the Democratic Party has become a niche party -- that the party's core is educated, well-off whites -- but this poll suggests that the Republican Party is a niche party now. College-educated whites, college-educated non-whites, and non-college-educated non-whites all reject what Trump is doing. Only non-college-educated whites offer support.
The same poll shows that 18-29 year olds reject Trump in a greater majority than the rest of the group polled. So much for Shor’s research.
Steve’s thesis is that the Republicans are a “niche party”, and I agree. Their base is non-college-educated whites. I don’t think we should abandon this demographic, but I also think that recognizing that they’re the Republican base can help us understand which groups we should target.
As a “glass is half empty and there’s a spot on it” person, even I am optimistic about the chances for Democrats because Republican policies are generally unpopular and also their base is pretty old. This doesn’t mean that Democrats have a slam-dunk ability to win in 2026 and 2028. It just means that the odds are ever in our favor.
Also, a meta note: I want everyone to be able to comment to their heart’s content on this site. So we’re going to start having open threads where you can post whatever you’d like. As I’ve written before, I’m shit at building community. So I’m going to take the lead from Key and all of you to try to build a place where we can have good conversations and also post interesting links that people might like. It’s a work in progress, and I appreciate everyone’s patience as we try to strike a good balance. Thanks for reading, and here’s a video:
Reply
John S. • 4 months ago
What an awesome video. It’s nearly impossible not to feel happy listening to that song. Plus, I’m a sucker for Kate Pierson.
mister mix • 4 months ago
Her duet with Iggy Pop ("Candy") is awesome.
Kay W. • 4 months ago
I’m not as confident; not about the youth vote, specifically but about Dems poor polling across the board.
We bled every demographic in 2024, not just white working class, so IMO it’s about LEVELS of support w/in the demos we carry, not whether we carry a “majority” of each demographic. 51% Latino (for example) is a “majority” but it’s not a winning number.
Biden was polling at 70% with Black voters in 2024. 70% is a strong majority but we need 90% to win.
Sepideh M • 4 months ago
Democrats are not trying with Latino voters. There are a bunch of scams in this space and a lot of people pretending to speak Spanish.
John S. • 4 months ago
Right wing radio has been all over the Spanish speaking demographic for some time now, and it’s clearly paying dividends.
mister mix • 4 months ago
Yep, still Trump's support among latinos has cratered: https://bsky.app/profile/daviddarmofal.bsky.social/post/3lnsa5hqugs2m
The question is whether Dems can make hay from this, and also from the way that the younger folks are rejecting Trump.
mister mix • 4 months ago
The part that gave me some optimism was this -- it's the opposite of the story being peddled by Shor and others:
Question: "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?"
Question: "Please tell me if this describes Donald Trump very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well: Understands the problems facing people like you."
Question: "For each of the following, tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. Deporting immigrants living in the United States illegally back to their home countries."
Question: "The tariffs imposed by President Trump."
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