I’m writing this post in a car dealership where I’m waiting for my truck to be serviced. The place is a ghost town. It’s a Wednesday (pre-writing this), so hard to tell what it’s usually like here, but I remember it being busier on other weekdays. It’s telling that there’s a “Fuel Economy Guide” on the table where I’m sitting – I bet that wasn’t here last time I was in this dealership, but I don’t really recall. The only cars they sell will probably be those that aren’t gas guzzlers.
I had read that there might be a shortage of synthetic oil, but apparently we’re at the part of our saga where it gets expensive before it gets unobtainable:
Gasoline isn’t the only thing that will likely cost you more to put in your car.
If you need an oil change, you might also be in for some sticker shock. The price of engine oil has been rising even faster than gas.
One oil distributor told FOX4 the cost of full synthetic oil sold to auto service shops is now about $7 more per gallon than it was at the beginning of March, when the war with Iran began. Semi-synthetic is about $4 more per gallon.
Now, some auto manufacturers have told service centers to reduce year-over-year allocations of engine oil nearly in half in order to prevent a shortage.
The reason for shortages and price hikes is that motor oil is mostly (44% of it) refined in the Persian Gulf, which means it has to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which means that it’s Trumps fault my fucking oil change is so expensive. The service advisor said that the car company was already cutting the allotment of synthetic oil to dealerships, so I’m glad I got this out of the way.
There’s a lot of discussion to the effect of “things might calm down by the election” with regard to gas prices, etc. I realize that there was a lot of “sky is falling” talk when the Strait closed, and when the sky didn’t fall, people assumed that all of that talk was overblown. But our supply chains are way more sophisticated than they were back in the 70’s when gas lines stretched around the block. Countries have reserves. Our reserve, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, is being drained down. Also, this:
“Market participants have been anesthetized by the constant ‘over soon’ messaging,” Croft said.
This is the key point: the war is so stupid that all the so-called “rational actors” in the market haven’t priced in the very real possibility that Trump seems to be immune to political pressure. They all think he’ll cave and things will go more back to normal. Their expectations fail to price in the very real possibility that his ego is more important to him than his legacy.
