The stated aim of our bombing spree in Iran was regime change. Now, we’re threatening them over control of the Strait of Hormuz, a place that didn’t even figure into Trump and Hegseth’s “boo-yah bomb them into the stone age” war “plan”. That’s losing, baby.

Sal Mercogliano at What’s Going On With Shipping made the point in his last report that we’re just starting to see the real impact of the war, since many of the Very Large Crude Carriers that haul oil to Europe and other places take a long time to make their voyages. Now that no more of them are coming from the Persian Gulf, where 20-25% of the world’s oil originates, we’re going to see a real oil crisis. Also, it’s going to take a long time to get things back to normal, months or years. (Around 120-140 ships generally transit the Strait daily in normal times. It’s single digits now.)

Suzanne Maloney from the Brookings Institute has a good summary of just how much we’re losing here: “And that is a very dangerous outcome for the long term — the wider implications of the United States having undertaken this action in a way that has alienated partners and allies in the region and all around the world, having effectively ceded huge financial benefits to the Russians and potentially ceded some diplomatic opportunity to the Chinese. And it’s not clear that President Trump is prepared to sustain American leadership or that even if he were, in the aftermath of this — what appears to be a catastrophic overreach and miscalculation with the attacks on Iran — that, in fact, the United States will be trusted to do that by countries around the world. It feels like a Suez moment in some respects.”

Steve M has an interesting post on why Trump as President and politician always doubles down: basically, because so many institutions folded without a fight. Steve thinks that’s part of why he started this war, because he couldn’t imagine an opponent fighting back. I think that’s part of it, but he also has a life habit of doing something done dumb, bullying to try to get his way, and then walking away from his failure. Unfortunately, he doesn’t seem to want to walk away this time, since it would be an epic climb-down.

Even if Trump walks away, will Israel? They have a different set of incentives than we do. In addition to their strategic incentives, Netanyahu needs forever wars in order to keep from being thrown into prison for his corruption.