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- Reality Check: Israel
As Democrats consider Netanyahu’s latest war with Iran, let’s keep this in mind:
When voters were asked how confident they are that Israel and Hamas will agree to a permanent cease fire in the near future, 17 percent say they are either very confident (3 percent) or somewhat confident (14 percent), while 77 percent say they are either not so confident (33 percent) or not confident at all (44 percent).
Voters were asked whether their sympathies lie more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinians based on what they know about the situation in the Middle East. Thirty-seven percent of voters say the Israelis, while 32 percent say the Palestinians, and 31 percent did not offer an opinion.
This is an all-time low for the Israelis and an all-time high for the Palestinians since the Quinnipiac University Poll began asking this question of registered voters in December 2001.
Among Republicans, 64 percent say the Israelis, while 7 percent say the Palestinians, and 29 percent did not offer an opinion.
Among Democrats, 12 percent say the Israelis, while 60 percent say the Palestinians, and 29 percent did not offer an opinion.
Among independents, 38 percent say the Israelis, while 30 percent say the Palestinians, and 31 percent did not offer an opinion.
I’m definitely in the 60% of Democrats on this one. Also note the 30% or so who don’t offer an opinion. That’s a political opportunity for people not afraid to touch this issue. I think Israel’s negatives could be pushed up drastically if someone with a platform started painting Netanyahu as a corrupt warmonger who endangers world peace and makes the US less safe after his bombing of Iran.
I don’t write about Israeli/US issues, except peripherally, because I don’t have any expertise, and because it’s so god damned frustrating. That said, this is a quality poll, and they’ve been asking the question for almost 25 years, and the trend is clear. I’d like to see responses to a few more questions, such as just general approval rating of Israel, because I think that anyone who’s tuned in to honest media about the way Netanyahu’s been running the country for the past couple of years is going to disapprove of the US having such close ties with his government.
I also think that our party is hurt by having Schumer in charge of the Senate. He may (or may not, it’s not clear) have a sizable constituency in New York that’s part of the 12% of Democrats who are on Israel’s side no matter how badly they treat Palestinians. His overly-broad definition of anti-semitism, and his reflexive disgust with protests at Columbia, are out of touch with the bulk of the party. (This NPR interview about his new book on anti-semitism is interesting when he dances around specifics that I think refute his general case.) It’s very telling that one of the few things that Schumer seems to engage with passion is anti-semitism and protecting Israel.
In addition to his own political situation in New York, part of Schumer being out-of-touch with the party has to be because, like Biden, being very tight with Israel is a almost 70-year tradition with Democrats. Again, people need to retire at a reasonable age because as they get older, they get more out of touch.
Open thread.
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