Primary Update

NY and IL-09

I guess this is technically a primary update but it’s also a general election update:

ALBANY, New York — President Donald Trump’s astonishingly chummy Oval Office meeting with New York City mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani could not have come at a worse time for Rep. Elise Stefanik.

The New York Republican is mounting an uphill gubernatorial bid in a deep blue state, building her campaign on the argument that Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul is the nation’s worst chief executive — and tying Hochul to the 34-year-old democratic socialist who will soon lead New York City.

If Politico didn’t have the mission to view every twist and turn of Trump’s capricious dealings with anyone who darkens the door of the Oval Office as a major political realignment, they might realize that the Trump/Mamdani lovefest will be as short-lived as any other zig or zag in the Trump saga.

That said, Elise Stefanik’s problem isn’t Trump’s friendly interchange with Zohran Mamdani. It’s that she’s unelectable to a statewide office in New York in 2026 because she’s too MAGA. She represents one of the reddest Congressional districts in New York State. New York is primed to go to the polls and reject Trumpism — I’ve seen it firsthand in the first Trump administration. Kathy Hochul, who’s not a good politician, will probably be re-elected by surfing a blue wave if she isn’t beaten in a primary by a serious challenger who’s yet to show up.

In other New York / Mamdani news, Zohran has put the kaibosh on Chi Osse’s primary hopes and dreams:

City Councilman Chi Osse said Saturday that he was likely to abort his planned primary campaign against House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries after a committee of the New York City chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America voted against recommending an endorsement.

“I have no intention of running this race without the support of NYC-DSA, of which I am proud to be a member,” Osse told the New York Daily News.

The adverse vote for Osse came after Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani advocated on Jeffries’ behalf on Wednesday.

“The choice is not whether to vote for Chi or Hakeem at the ballot box, the choice is how to spend the next year,” Mamdani told fellow DSA members, according to the Daily News’ account of the meeting. “Do we want to spend it defending caricatures of our movement, or do we want to spend it fulfilling the agenda at the heart of that very same movement?”

It’s not just Jeffries’ late and grudging endorsement of Mamdani that’s at play here, as far as I’m concerned. Mamdani’s right: the amount of money Jeffries would bring to a primary would pay for an incredible and ugly amount of ads, plus Jeffries many consultants would have a field day dumping shit on Osse. Whether that perception makes Mamdani’s decision the correct one is another matter. I’d love to see Jeffries primaried by a serious challenger. I think it would shake up the Democratic establishment, a crew that needs a serious shakeup. But I’m just a spectator here. Mamdani is a player, and he’s going to have a hard time enacting his agenda without some support from the establishment. Specifically, Kathy Hochul could probably be pressured to back off of some of her anti-Mamdani-agenda positions, such as no free buses, if she’s scared about her run for governor (which she should be). And Jeffries might possibly be an ally to pressure Hochul.

Finally, Scott sent in the news that the Congressional Progressive Caucus has decided to endorse Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss over Kat Abughazaleh in the IL-09 primary. Elizabeth Warren already endorsed him, apparently because he worked for her in Iowa when she ran for President. Given the kind of outsider, insurgent campaign that Abughazaleh is running, this endorsement might not hurt her, and it might not help Biss. The latest poll shows them tied at 18% with 31% undecided, with the many other contenders at 10% or less.

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