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Primary / Polling / Special Election Roundup
Utah, An Interesting Poll, etc
mister mix
November 14, 2025
Scott sent in the news that an anti-choice Democrat is running in the primary for Utah’s recently redrawn 1st Congressional District. The current UT-1 is D+22 after redistricting, but the candidate is a former Rep Ben McAdams who beat right winger Mia Love in 2018:
“I support the teachings of my LDS faith that oppose abortion except in cases of rape, incest, danger to the mother’s life and in certain other rare circumstances, after seeking spiritual guidance through prayer and from trusted counsel,” he said. “Other religions have other teachings on this subject.”
“Ultimately, decisions about terminating a pregnancy should [be] made by a woman in consultation with her physician, family members and faith counselors she trusts,” he added. (During his lone term in Congress, McAdams compiled an 80% rating from Planned Parenthood.)
McAdams pledged during that race not to vote to return Nancy Pelosi to the speaker’s chair, a promise he kept after his victory. He also proposed a constitutional amendment to require a balanced federal budget, an idea that has far more support among Republicans than Democrats.
But while McAdams’ positioning helped him run well ahead of Joe Biden’s 52-43 deficit against Trump in the 4th District, he still narrowly lost to Republican Burgess Owens 48-47.
This gets us to “right candidate for the district” — McAdams might be right for a R+5 district, but he’s not the guy for a D+22 district. His opponent is State Sen Kathleen Riebe, who seems a little more progressive.
After the upset victory of two Democrats in the Georgia PUC election, there’s a possibility of an upset in a special election in a normally pretty red district. The election happens December 9 and here’s more about it if you’re interested. Both of the PUC candidates won that district last week. We seem to be in a cycle where having a D after your name gives you an immediate edge in most elections. This might be a proof point.
My brother tells me that Jeanne Shaheen’s daughter Stefany is running in the NH-01 Congressional primary. Here’s her campaign site. I wonder if her mom’s role in the cave will hurt her chances.
Speaking of having a “D” after your name, the Down Ballot, along with You Gov Blue, a Democratic polling firm, did a special poll to test the idea that anti-GOP sentiment is much stronger than pro-Democratic sentiment.
YouGov Blue’s survey data finds that voters prefer Democratic candidates for Congress over Republican candidates by a 3-point margin when asked which party they plan to vote for—a question that’s commonly known as the generic congressional ballot.
“At the moment, Democrats should generally be feeling pretty good,” John Ray, YouGov Blue’s senior director of polling, told The Downballot in an email. “In the Generic Congressional Ballot item phrased the way we typically would, Democrats are currently +3, including +6 among Independent voters. That’s a good position to be in, full stop.”
But when asked specifically whether they’d like to see Republicans retain their majority in Congress, the proportion of voters who say “no” doubles to yield a 6-point gap.
The effect is especially pronounced among independent voters.
By a 6-point margin, independents say they prefer Democrats on the generic ballot. But when the question is framed purely around control of Congress, that jumps to a whopping 22-point spread in favor of those who say they don’t want Republicans to remain in charge.
The results indicate that, with the Democratic Party’s brand in the dumps, the best path forward for Democrats is to keep the focus on the GOP.
I mean, is this good news or bad news? I’m not quite sure.
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