I know we’re all experiencing the duality of political men and women. On the one hand, we’re encouraged by the polls. On the other hand, we’re shell shocked from previous bad polling. So let’s talk polls.

First, the best thing I’ve seen recently about the overall state of the election is Paul Krugman’s talk with David Nir of the (excellent) Down Ballot, and G. Elliot Morris of his Strength in Numbers site. You can watch the whole thing at the link. Basically, Morris and Nir both are concerned about how solid the polls look for Democrats, but, overall, there’s nothing to indicate that there’s anything really wrong with them.

Since I’m a “glass half empty and there’s a spot on it” person, let’s look at the races that are concerning me right now. First, Minnesota. Recent polling shows that the Republican Tafoya and Democrat Flanagan are 50/50 in a state where Trump’s ICE have been killing Minnesotans. One of our Minnesota readers commented that Flanagan hasn’t been running a great campaign (sorry, can’t find the comment), so maybe that’s part of the problem. Also, Tim Walz is apparently pretty unpopular even though he’s a fan favorite here.

Maine isn’t looking good, either. As I’ve written earlier, I blame Chuck Schumer. I know that there are people that actually know something about Maine politics who read this blog who disagree with me, but the more evidence that comes out, the more that we see that Schumer and his shitty consultants are running this thing into the ground. Here’s an America Prospect roundup on that sad topic. Some of the evidence that Maine readers, who I respect, say that it isn’t Schumer’s fault is that no younger Democrats wanted to challenge Collins. My take is that Schumer’s pressure on Mills to run, and the fact that all the Maine up-and-comers knew this, made some younger, credible candidates decide not to challenge Mills. Plus, of course, the oysterman’s massive advantage borne of all of the progressive money that came his way early in primary season.

This point in the campaign reminds me of the Obama campaign a couple of months out in 2008. They were flush with money, and polls showed them competitive in states like South Dakota and other places where Democrats normally get shellacked. It turns out that they weren’t competitive, but there was nothing wrong with spending some money in those states. Then, those campaigns pulled out of SD and other similar states when voters “came home” to Republicans. The difference in this race is that we’re seeing some Democrats (like Talarico) polling 50% or better, which is a hell of a lot different from a 45/45 race in a red state that will end up 52/48 when Republicans come home.

So who the hell knows. The Senate races that look good to me right now are Iowa and Kansas. I saw a poll with Turek at 50% in Iowa, which as we know has had Democrats in power in the recent past. Even Hinojosa in Texas, who writes me constantly, has been looking good in the polls.

To quote a great American poet: the future is wide open, and the sky is the limit.