A couple of days ago, Donald Trump endorsed Ken Paxton in the Texas Republican Senate Primary Runoff, which probably means it’s all she wrote for John Cornyn. On the most recent TPM Podcast (formerly the Josh Marshall Podcast), Kate Riga made the point that Paxton might actually be a pretty good candidate since, for one thing, he’s the kind of corrupt asshole that MAGA likes to elect. Midterms are all about exciting the base, and considering that Trump is not very popular, a lot of casual Republicans might sit this one out. MAGA is going to get on their mobility scooters flying confederate flags and drive to the polls to support the chosen liege of their god-king.
Steve M made a similar point in a post yesterday:
Ken Paxton survives scandals because he's always the craziest son of a bitch in the race. "Craziest," in his case, means least self-examining and most lib-owning.
I don't believe every Republican voter prefers the craziest son of a bitch in every instance -- Cornyn did, after all, poll slightly ahead of Paxton in the March 3 primary, though not decisively enough to avoid a runoff. And we know from national politics that many pollsters divide GOP voters into "MAGA" and "non-MAGA." Trump's support among non-MAGA voters is eroding.
But in a typical red-state election, zealots pick the craziest son of a bitch in the race and then less extreme Republican voters rally around that candidate because, gosh, you can't expect them to vote for a Democrat, can you? In red states -- including Texas until maybe, just maybe, this year -- that's all a Republican candidate has needed in recent years: supporters of the crazy SOB plus anyone-but-the-Democrat voters. In purple states, and also nationally, you need more, which is why Trump had to add a few non-white men and young bros to his coalition in 2024.
Because Paxton is elected to a state position, it’s possible to do an apples-to-apples comparison of how he polled statewide versus Governor Greg Abbott, and Paxton is usually 1-2 points behind Abbott, even when Abbott has a opponent that runs hard (like Beto O’Rourke). So Paxton’s not as popular as the other asshole, Abbott, but he wins statewide elections against Democrats.
Steve M’s point about “gosh, you can’t expect them to vote for a Democrat” is incredibly important here. It’s the Fox News effect, the constant demonization writ large of the Democratic Party, versus a lot of our leaders still looking around thirstily for “bipartisan compromise” as if there’s any compromise in MAGA.
Plus there’s the constant othering, recently on display with Talarico ordered an egg and potato breakfast taco at an Austin taco joint. Here’s one MAGA-humping outlet’s view of the interaction:
Basically, what happened is that Greg Abbott, the whitest motherfucker on earth, criticized Talarico’s order. Talarico didn’t even need to order, he’s a regular there and they just served up what he usually orders. Of course, there are hundreds of different varieties of Mexican food, but at my house, my mom would put potatoes in some dishes and they were delicious. (Of course they were, they’re fucking potatoes, sheesh.) Note, too, that the woman to Talarico’s left is Gina Hinojosa, who’s running for Governor against Abbott. She’s at least second-generation Rio Grande Valley and they know their Tex-Mex down there.
This ticky-tacky petty bullshit is, as we all know, fairly effective with the audience it’s aimed at. Establishment Democrats muzzle anyone (*cough* Walz *cough*) who tries to do the same to MAGA, which has to be the weirdest, dumbest cult to come down the pike in a long time. Hopefully, Talarico will be able to paint Paxton as what he is: a serial adulterer, almost-impeached Texas Attorney General who is corrupt as shit. If he’s going to win, one of the things Talarico needs to do is find a way to drive a wedge between MAGA and the somewhat reasonable Republicans who vote R because they can’t mark their ballot for a “Demoncrat.” If he does find a way to do it, we need to replicate his success. Of course, that’s not all he needs to do, and it’s dumb to make that the only focus of his campaign. A Talarico win in Texas is going to be a combination of a lot of good campaign strategies and a bad environment for Republicans.
(Side note: Cornyn is such a good soldier that he probably won’t vote with Democrats in the Senate, but Trump did fuck him, and his career is over, so we might see some anti-Trump votes from him, as we’re seeing with the scattering cockroaches like Bill Cassidy and Thom Tillis.)
