"He will bring back manufacturing"

President Trump has claimed that his sweeping tariff regime will reshore American companies and revive manufacturing in the U.S.

So far, that hasn’t happened. Economic activity tied to manufacturing has shrunk for most of Trump’s second term.

A few investments and pledges aimed at beefing up domestic manufacturing appear timed to appease the president, and may or may not come to fruition. The latest is from Apple, which is planning to commit an additional $100 billion to the U.S., after saying in February it would spend more than $500 billion in the country over four years to make servers and parts for its key products.

Beneath the shiny announcements lies a sector that can’t seem to get off the ground.

From March to July, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s monthly survey. The Manufacturing PMI last registered at 48, below the 50 score that differentiates growth and decline.

The effective average tariff rate on all imported goods now stands at roughly 18% versus 2.3% last year, the highest levels since the 1930s.

Motorcycle maker Harley-Davidson and off-road vehicle manufacturer Polaris, both of which have extensive U.S. factory operations, cited consumer uncertainty as a factor behind decisions to tamp down production.

“Consumers are really just reluctant to go spend right now unless they really need to or they’re fortunate enough to have the financial flexibility to do that,” Polaris CEO Mike Speetzen said during the company’s July earnings call.