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Reader R Po sent in this piece with his take on Mexico. I agree with him, and I like his perspective. Thanks to R for sending it in.
The game is afoot. It's been inevitable that the two most powerful MX social "movements" would violently clash. Morena is like if AOC was president and the DSA (Democratic Socialists of America) controlled all branches of the government with a 70% approval level. Morena is actually doing not cynically what the wiki page says:
Big changes for the better for most of MX society, focused on the bottom, emphasis on development (jobs, minimum wage) at the bottom, healthcare for the bottom.
"por el bien de todos, primero los pobres" [For the benefit of all - the poor first]
But also: security for the bottom. Except in a still weak federal system security for the bottom is near non existent outside of the big cities because: cartels.
The cartels are analogous to the oligarchs in the US. By historically providing "prosperity" for the bottom they effectively control a big chunk of the rural part of the country, and the only way to survive is to join them. Otherwise you're dead: "plato o plumo" [Silver or lead, meaning accept a bribe or be killed]. Morena threatens the basic architecture of that predatory system.
The oligarchs in the US have essentially bought near invincible control of the country because they control nearly all of the legitimate state apparatus. The cartels have no such luxury. The only way they keep control is through violence. Morena, especially during the AMLO years, consolidated its power over the branches of the MX government by a voluntary policy of disengagement with the cartels: "abrazos, no balazos". [Hugs not bullets] AMLO was also a very kooky populist. I had my doubts he would give up power but it is an astoundingly good thing he did. Because Sheinbaum is the real deal. AMLO is like a commie non-senile Trump. Sheinbaum is like FDR, but better educated. She's Jewish btw, and was mayor of Mexico City. Got the Mamdani vibes. You should go and gawk at her publication list:
So you can see the conflict coming. Morena wants the bottom to have 1st world lives. The cartels can't have that. Lots of politicians and hopefully a shit ton of the cartels' leadership cadres are going to die, because this is going to be like Ukr/Rus.
And here's the part that will blow your mind: neither Morena nor the cartels want the violence to disrupt the tourist industry. The cartels have billions in investments in the
tourist industry, so it would hurt them pretty bad to say, fuck up Puerto Vallarta, which suffered some on Sunday, but not in the tourist sections. The cartels burned some
vehicles on the very road we drove on to get to and from Ensenada last month, but nothing happened in Ensenada. I'd have no qualms at all about carrying on just as before.
But, I'm pretty worried about Sheinbaum.
The latest news from Mexico is that it’s pretty much business as usual in Jalisco, with no more cars burning or other issues like that. Obligatory Claudia with cute kids pic:
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