Apparently there’s some kind of a deal to end the stupid Iran war. The details aren’t clear yet. When they are, it will be obvious that we poured billions of dollars down a black hole and ended up in a worse strategic position. Key points as I’m reading them last night in the Guardian live blog
$12 billion of Iranian assets will be returned to them.
Trump is claiming “no toll” on the Strait of Hormuz, but there’s no confirmation of that claim from Iran.
Lindsay Graham, fresh from a not-very-convincing 57% win in his primary, reminds us that Congress needs to approve any Iran deal and he’ll be looking closely at it. L to the O to the L on that one.
Israel says they’re “not a party” to the deal. However, their persistent attempts to spoil the agreement seem to have been ignored in order to get the deal done.
It will take months, if not years, for oil supplies to recover.
All countries that rely on Persian Gulf oil are happy (Japan, South Korea, France, UK, Germany, Italy).
Obviously, Republicans will try to shop this as a “win” and it will be up to Democrats to do the obvious: point to gas prices. They’re not going to come down quickly, but to the relief of Republicans, they’ll probably start coming down a little.
In the short term I’m interested in the fine print of the agreement. In the mid-term, it will be fascinating to see what Iran’s going to try to get away with as we hastily withdraw. Long-term, I wonder how the Gulf States are going to subtly move away from the US and engage other countries that will be able to offer them more useful alliances. It’s clear that Iran’s cheap drones will at some point be able to overwhelm their expensive US weapons.
This is the kind of thing where everyone involved in a gross folly are ready to move on, especially Trump. He’s more interested in his MMA birthday celebration, stiffing the MMA fighters by paying them in some kind of Trump memecoin, and getting ready for the 250th celebration spectacle that’s going to fall flat.
I’m going to write some more on the ridiculous displays of masculinity from MAGA, but in the meantime feast your eyes on one specimen. That’s Joe Rogan in case it isn’t obvious:
