I was at a coffee shop today and saw this:
It struck me that it would be almost impossible for me to guess the date of that newspaper — it could have been yesterday, it could have been a week or a month ago. Nothing is happening in Iran because Trump lost on about day 2 but doesn’t want to admit it, and Israel is double and tripling down on whatever attacks they think advance their interests in the region. In the meantime, we have these little skirmishes.
Trump did another “we’re almost there” announcement yesterday which nobody will believe. This is what’s important:
Before Donald Trump’s announcement of an imminent peace deal drove a drop in oil prices and a rally in stocks, the World Bank issued a downbeat assessment of global economic growth in light of the continuing war.
The World Bank bank revised down its global growth forecast to a level not seen since the Covid pandemic, and warned of the conflict’s expanding economic impacts.
In addition to the economic crisis brought on by the war, one of the many other bad things about the conflict has been the draw down of the expensive missiles we use to shoot down (mostly) cheap Iranian drones. It’s pretty bad:
The 39-day bombing and air defense campaign against Iran depleted inventories of key U.S. munitions stockpiles, as a previous CSIS analysis detailed. The United States has enough munitions for any plausible scenario in the Iran war, but the depleted inventories have created a window of vulnerability for a potential Western Pacific conflict. The time needed to rebuild those inventories has thus become a major concern.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that it will take “months and years . . . depending on the weapon system” to replenish U.S. inventories. CSIS analysis supports the secretary’s assessment. Table 1 shows replacement times for seven key munitions heavily used during the Iran War that would also be needed for a Western Pacific war. Under the current delivery projections:
Land Attack Missile (TLAM), Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), and Patriot—heavily used in this war—will take three or more years from today to return to prewar inventory levels.
Standard Missiles (SM-3 and SM-6) will take around two years. These naval missiles were not used as heavily.
Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM) and Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) will take several months to a year to replace. The prewar PrSM inventory was low because the system had just begun production. JASSM, though heavily used, will see large deliveries from recent procurements.
So we have Trump effectively committing us to billions of dollars in military spending because of the war, and he’s drawn down our missile supplies to the point that we’re vulnerable to the Chinese if they choose to start a war. The Chinese probably won’t, because they’re already winning the trade war with us, and they don’t seem to be inclined to do stupid shit for no good strategic reason, unlike Trump. But we can’t count on that.
If Trump is right that a peace agreement will be signed over the weekend, which I doubt, we’ll exit this war poorer, weaker and in a worse strategic situation in the Middle East. High fives all around.
