My guess/bet on the Iran War is that it would be over long before today, so obviously I have no special insight into when this own goal is going to end. One thing that’s clear is that Iran knows that Trump and his Republican enablers stepped in it, and they’re going to extract the maximum amount of pain from the US and our allies:
Iran has poured cold water on suggestions that a deal with the US is imminent, pointing to the confusion in US positions and Israeli interference as key factors in why a complete agreement is proving difficult to secure.
Speaking at the weekly foreign ministry press briefing, Esmail Baghaei, the spokesperson for Iran’s negotiating team, also said future management of the strait of Hormuz was a matter for Oman and Iran to reach agreement on, and that it was not tolls that were being proposed but “fees for navigational services”.
[…]
He also insisted that a ceasefire in Lebanon had to be included in the memorandum of understanding that would lead to Iran allowing commercial shipping through the strait, and the US lifting its blockade of Iran’s ports.
By contrast, the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, still held out hope that a deal could be reached on Monday, but there appeared to be a mounting list of unresolved problems in what was intended to be a roadmap to reopening the nuclear talks that Trump abandoned in February in favour of war.
Any alliance between the US and Persian Gulf states was always going to be based on our ability to protect them, and since it has been amply demonstrated that we can’t, those states are now going to try to form alliances with whatever other countries will help them ship their oil, gas and other petroleum products out of the Gulf. Iran is one of those countries.
Having watched more What’s Going on With Shipping than is healthy, one thing I know for sure is that “fees for navigational services” in the Strait of Hormuz is a violation of international law. The “fee” should be nothing. So, if we exit this war with Iran and Oman being able to charge a fee to transit the Strait, we’ve lost.
Steve M wrote this yesterday:
[…] Maybe the outcome would change if Democrats were willing to compare and contrast Trump's deal with the nuclear deal negotiated during Barack Obama's presidency, which cost America nothing in blood and treasure -- but apart from Obama himself, Democrats have never been willing to defend that deal, much less boast about it.
I agree with Steve’s general point, which is that if Democrats can’t speak for themselves and have their message heard, Trump will make chickenshit seem like chicken salad,. He’s certainly going to try to sell the Iran deal (if it ever occurs) as chicken salad. I think it’s worth making some noise about Obama’s deal with Iran, but even more important, the simpler (and therefore more understandable) point is that there was no free to transit the Strait of Homuz on the day Trump started the war, and there is now that he’s ended it.
Another fact is that even if Trump “ends” the war tomorrow, by which I mean there’s transit through the Strait of Hormuz, worldwide shipping has been disrupted to an extent that all we’ll be seeing by the midterms is a reduction in gas prices, rather than a complete reversion to pre-war gas prices.
From the relative silence I’ve seen on Democrats on this topic, I’m guessing the Democratic caucus lacks a consensus on what to do about Iran. First, all of their pollster/consultants are telling them that “affordability” is the only thing they should be talking about. Second, a lot of them are afraid to speak out against the war lest they be called “weak” and “un-American” — basically, they’re still experiencing PTSD from the Republican attacks aimed at them after the Iraq War. I’m hoping that the historical unpopularity of this war, coupled with the affect of gas prices on “affordability” will finally convince them that this is something worth talking about. That remains to be seen. But the simple fact that Trump caused the average American to pay hundreds of dollars over the past few months, and the next few, seems like a simple enough political issue that even our party could seize on it and make some noise about it.
