A couple of days ago, yet another “is Fetterman about to become a Republican?” story surfaced, and it caused a little bit of discussion. Fetterman is having a moment, in part because Democrats feel burned and are wondering if Platner is the next disappointment. For what it’s worth, I think Fetterman’s behavior is the result of a stroke, the ensuing depression, and possibly estrangement from his wife and family. He’s giving big sad-sack-loner energy, and some Republicans have befriended him in an effort nudge him to change parties. For the next two and a half years, it matters a lot what Fetterman does. After 2028, it won’t matter at all, because he’s unelectable as a Democrat or a Republican after the stunts he’s pulled.

Anyway, what does Fetterman have to do with the VRA? Well, let’s start with the unfortunate fact that we’ll probably be saddled with his mercurial ass in the Senate, and also more than a couple of Fetterbro-types in the House. Not only do Democrats have a habit of not retiring in time, so we’re always dealing with a death or two, but some of them have the other unfortunate habits of drama queens: wanting to be the exciting center of attention rather than just the boring back bencher who votes with leadership. Jared Golden, Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez and a few others think that winning a tough election somehow gives them some special rights and privileges, chief among them micturating on their party’s agenda.

So, we need a few extra votes. Nobody’s more aware of that than Republicans, and they’re working their assess off to return the South to full-on Jim Crow.

There’s also the FBI search of the offices of L. Louise Lucas, the “You started it and we fucking finished it” Virginia Senate President Pro Tempore, as well as the fact that Virginia redistricting is waiting on a ruling from the Virginia State Supreme Court. Clearly, Republicans and the corrupt DoJ will do whatever they can to discourage much-needed redistricting.

After the VRA repeal, there’s a chance that what will probably be a wave election in the House will be muted by the loss of some majority minority seats in the South, as well as whatever legal fuckery Republicans are willing to pull off in other states. Since Democrats have the pesky habit of following the law, a lot of our redistricting won’t be done until 2028. (For example, we could pick up a couple of seats in Colorado, but that’s dependent on a ballot initiative passing this Fall.)

In the Senate, the relevance of the VRA is to de-motivate voters who feel that they’re disenfranchised. I’m not aware of any serious pickup opportunities in the deep South, but there’s always North Carolina, and perhaps Florida (hope springs eternal).

We might have razor-thin majorities, best case, and we need to prepare for that. I certainly don’t have “one neat trick” to fix this. In addition to Fetterman, there are some Democrats in the Senate who are almost certainly hiding the fact that they don’t want to repeal the filibuster, and if that’s not repealed, everything else doesn’t happen. My hope is that, if the Dems have a thin majority in the Senate and there’s no filibuster repeal, the white-hot rage of the base will lead to some retirements or primary defeats in 2028.