In the Personality Crisis podcast that dropped today, one of the points that our guest Alex González Ormerod made was just how wealthy the US is compared to Latin America. The example he used was Puerto Rico. If it was a state, it would be by far the poorest in the US. But if it were a country, it would be the richest in Latin America. (I think he meant per capita GDP). That got me thinking about just what would be involved in an “invasion” of Cuba.
Cuba has a population of around 10 million people. The per-capita GDP is around $22K (Puerto Rico’s is almost $50K). It is an incredibly poor country with terrible infrastructure:
But helping to “build a better future” for Cuba, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio offered in a video message directed at the Cuban people this week, will require massive private sector investment on the Communist-controlled island. U.S. businesses are wary. And, without their involvement, Cuba could become a dangerously impoverished and ungovernable country of roughly 10 million people situated 90 miles south of Florida.
“You’re talking about a country that absolutely, 100 percent needs to be redone,” said Horacio Garcia Jr., a Cuban-American business leader based in Miami who is involved with the Cuban Liberty Council, which pushes for democracy in Cuba. “There’s no infrastructure for anything, for water, electricity, nothing, nothing. There’s not really a fair banking system. Everything needs to be done from the ground up. You’re talking about a country that’s in ruins.”
Daniel Drezner has a long piece that pulls together a lot of the issues with an invasion of Cuba. Cuba has no natural resources like Venezuela. “Recovery” of the island’s economy would take years and a huge investment from the US.
It’s clear that, as usual, the MAGA numbskulls in charge are scratching their heads over why Cuba hasn’t just capitulated. They can’t imagine that a country with three generations raised under a leadership that painted the US as, basically, Satan, wouldn’t just roll over and let the US do whatever they want to their country. Poor as it is, Cuba also has an army, which has rifles with bullets in them. Cuba is the size of the state of Virginia. If a US invasion met resistance, it’s not going to be a “clean” operation with a few Marines stationed to guard critical infrastructure.
It’s just a stupid fucking idea, which makes it all the more likely that it will happen. Since Marco Rubio is styling himself as the next king of MAGA, hopefully his reputation will take a hit when his pet project (invading Cuba) turns out to be massive money pit and perhaps a bloody resistance.
