Another Perspective on the Shutdown

I think James Fallows is one of the wisest journalists around. He identified the issues with the press that we’re dealing with now way back in his book Breaking the News, Undermining American Democracy way back in 1996. He was a speechwriter for Jimmy Carter so he’s looked at politics from both sides. He initially was with the rest of us thinking that the Democrats had caved, and he was angry. Now, he’s thought about it some more and thinks that perhaps it wasn’t the worst thing in the world. His Substack piece is worth a read. Since the last part is behind a paywall, I’ll include it here:

In today’s world of media and politics, attention is quicksilver. Seven days ago, it seemed as if the Shutdown Showdown might have lasting political effect.

And what has happened since then?

• For about three days after Trump’s big “win,” his strength and Democrats’ weakness led the political news. But as I type just now, exactly one week after the surprise announcement, nothing about this “win” is featured on the home pages of the NYT, the WaPo, the WSJ, or other news sites I’ve checked. It’s old news.

• Of course there were, and are, serious generational and policy divisions within the Democratic party. They will naturally command more and more attention through the midterms and the next presidential run. But I bet that in campaigns next year this shutdown vote won’t be a major axis of division.²

• Another category of story made big news a week ago, and is mainly missing now. This was about the human toll of the ongoing shutdown, from school-tour groups who couldn’t visit closed museums, to TSA agents taking side jobs to pay the rent. As long as those stories lasted, Democrats would naturally share much of the blame.
  The shutdown already had proven that MAGA intended to increase suffering, disruption, and inconvenience through the shutdown. (Yes, intended: Refusing to pay full SNAP benefits, when surplus funds were on hand. Managing air traffic in a needlessly clumsy way. Using the shutdown to enact permanent layoffs. Etc) Could the Democrats have remained united, as their constituents felt more and more pain? We’ll never know. But we see that operational problems are MAGA problems now, not the result of a “both sides refuse to budge” shutdown.

• At the very top of all news sites is the ever-worsening Epstein disaster. For complicated reasons I don’t need to spell out, the end of the shutdown will mean ever more Epstein info.

• What’s also leading all the sites I’ve seen is an assortment of policy failures or challenges for Trump and MAGA. Coming up with a real health plan. Dealing with inflation. Back-tracking on tariffs. Possible war with Venezuela. Scandals of every sort with DHS and ICE, plus brutality. One courtroom loss after another. None of these can be blamed on the shutdown any more, or compete with it for news space.

• For months, not a single Republican in Congress dared challenge Trump on any issue that mattered. The shutdown votes held them together. Now, issue by issue, they are beginning to peel off.

To be clear here, I’m not suggesting that any of the original eight senators worked out the ten-dimensional chess of how their “surrender” would affect mainstream coverage. Too much is unpredictable, from the volatile Epstein situation to the chaos of Trump himself. But whatever the intent, this is how it’s playing out.

What do I know now, that I didn’t one week ago? That Trump’s big “win” on the shutdown seemed transient, and his potential losses from it seem more serious.

What do I think now, that I didn’t one week ago? That the country would be in worse shape, and so would the Democratic party and its prospects, if the Senate had not found a way to make a deal. That’s where I’ve changed my mind. It’s better all around that we’re not now at Day 50 of a shutdown.

And back to what we can know: That every ounce of energy should go to the real battle.

If you’re going to accept his view that attention is like quicksilver and that current events have eclipse the shutdown, this incredibly powerful video might help make the point:

Over 1,000 victims of Jeffrey Epstein. That’s the story that’s occupying us all at the moment, and it seems to have legs. These brave women are helping.