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- Another Cletus Safari and Economy Vibes
Reader S sent in this video from YouTube. John King went on a Cletus Safari in Colorado, specifically in CO-8, which Cook Political rates as EVEN and which Gabe Evans won by 2,000 votes. Of course, in such an evenly split district, King only talked with Republicans. But, I think this is worth watching just to see how immovable and excuse-making Trump voters are.
There’s an old rancher who thinks Trump is full of shit and doesn’t like Musk, but voted for Trump three times and flies a Trump flag. A hispanic woman who was a migrant worker who thinks Trump needs to be nicer to migrants. A brewer and a bar owner. The brewer is fine with Trump doing things. The bartender is perhaps the only one that is worried. So 1 out of 5 of these people is persuadable, but only maybe.
Reader J sent in this piece from the Guardian talking about the economy. Like a lot of other pieces, it contains this polling data:
The poll, conducted this month, presents a worrying picture for Trump’s administration but also highlights the strength of his support and how his election has triggered a dizzying swing in voters’ views of the economy.
* 39% of Republicans now believe the US economy is improving compared with just 8% last May. Over a quarter, 26%, believe it is worsening compared to 70% last May.
* 69% of Democrats now believe the US economy is getting worse compared with 36% last May; 11% think it is getting better compared with 32% last May.
*Independent voters’ views have shifted the least with 12% believing the economy is improving (11% last May) and 56% thinking it is getting worse (59% last May).
Democrats seem to have internalized the notion that we didn’t address voters’ concerns about the economy as clearly as we should have. For example, Jeffries’ and Schumers’ messaging is constantly talking about the price of eggs. And paying like $8 for a dozen eggs is disturbing. But what are we going to do about the price of eggs? Obviously, just complaining about it as an opposition party is fine. But when we’re in power, what’s our solution?
I don’t have a silver bullet, but I suggest that we stop thinking with economist brain, and stop using policy wonk brain to create solutions.
Economist brain looks at the inflation chart, points out it’s better, and thinks that voters should accept that. Yes, inflation is down, but we didn’t have deflation — grocery prices today are, in general, much higher than before COVID. Housing is also much more expensive.
Policy wonk brain looks at the price of housing and says, how about a $25,000 tax credit that will phase in over a few years, be means tested, and be for first-time buyers only? That’s too little and it’s too complicated. How about we give people $50K as a mortgage down payment and tax it back if they don’t meet income requirements? (I’ve never understood the absolute mania for means testing when we have an income tax that can be used to means test after the fact.)
This is obviously just a hint towards some answers, but I think we all need to acknowledge that there wasn’t much like this coming from Democrats when everybody was complaining about the economy:
Magna = Regular Gas. 24 pesos/liter =~ $4.68/gallon. It was 21 MXP/liter (ish) in late 2023.
Doing something loud and out in the open to address a visible price everyone sees is one way to at least get voters to believe that you’re on their side. But we also need to realize that nothing will change the minds of most of the voters that CNN found in their Cletus safari. We need to bring out more of our non-voters.
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