[Former Federal Judge Judge J Michael] Luttig warned on a new episode of "The Court of History" podcast that a midterm wipeout for Republicans makes what he describes as "the final battle for America's democracy" all the more likely. The battle, he claimed, would take place on January 3, 2027.
That's the day that the 120th Congress is due to be sworn in. But that assumes that Republicans will agree to seat the newly elected Democrats. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has already shown a proclivity to delaying the certification of duly elected members after he held up Rep. Adelita Grijalva's (D-AZ) swearing-in for 50 days in 2025.
"There are already discussions around the country that Mike Johnson would fire the existing clerk and replace that clerk with a loyalist," Luttig said.
That poses a problem for newly elected members representing states with election conspiracists working in the halls of power, Luttig added. If the states refuse to certify a member's election, then the House Clerk would not list those members on the roll to be notified of their seating.
Trump hinted at this possibility in February when he told MAGA media personality Dan Bongino that Republicans needed to control the midterms to win the elections, a statement Luttig described as "breathtaking."
I have a couple of thoughts on this. First, listening to a podcast featuring Luttig at normal speed would probably be considered torture, for me at least, because he’s a major slow talker.
In a more serious vein, not that being an overly slow talker isn’t a serious issue, Luttig might be right. We know that Trump & Co are going to do everything they can to raise uncertainty and chaos around the elections. Thinking that Democrats winning majorities, despite uncertainty and chaos, is the decisive end of the election is wrong. It’s widely, and correctly, stated that Trump doesn’t have enough ICE goons or DoJ goons to intimidate all voters at the 95,000 or so precincts where people vote in a general election. It is true that the Postal Service nonsense will probably (not certainly) be held up by the courts. It’s also true that Trump & Co are so disorganized and chaotic that they probably couldn’t coordinate a real voter suppression effort. Whatever they do will be half-assed. But on 1/6/2021, half-assed almost got the job done, and Stephen Miller and the rest of them will have had 6 years to plan their next putsch.
Next time, I don’t think Trump et. al. will send a bunch of crazed supporters out to break down doors — the Capitol will be surrounded by troops, because no matter how loyal Thune and Johnson are, they don’t want to die at the hands of the people whose votes they court by telling lies about election fraud. The loyalty of those troops is, of course, suspect, because Hegseth will be calling the shots at the Pentagon.
That said, I see a scenario where Johnson puts a shitty, malleable Clerk into office who will refuse to do their duty. I also see a scenario where some Democrats point out that this clerk is committing some horrific crime which I hope has a terrible penalty.
In the end, this all depends on the bet you’re making. If the bet is that there’s going to be a whole new Trumpian order, then being the Clerk who denies the election results is a good job. If the bet is that Democrats will have a few years in which they won’t get a lot done and then will have to relinquish power to Republicans, then being that Clerk is a dangerous job. This goes double for JD Vance in 2028, when (dios mediante) a Democrat is elected President. If he wants to have a political future in a democracy, then doing what Mike Pence wouldn’t makes no sense for him.
The one thing that might alter the bet I’m making is the lack of Supreme Court retirements. Because they should know that having a Republican-controlled Senate to confirm their right-wing nutjob successors is a bad bet. Unless they think they’re going to rule in ways that keep Republicans in power forever.
As usual with these terrible people, we’re wondering which institutions will hold, and which of our elected representatives will fight for them.
